Thorpe, Popov will be the ones to chase

Sydney: Analysis of men's events in the eight-day Olympic swimming programme which begins at the Homebush Bay indoor pool on Saturday.

50 metres freestyle

Alexander Popov, double Olympic sprint champion in 1992 and 1996, has bounced back this year in emphatic style after suffering rare defeats in 1998 and 1999.

The Australian-based Russian broke Tom Jager's 10-year-old world record in June and regained his 50 and 100 metres crowns at July's European championships in Helsinki.

But Americans Gary Hall and Anthony Ervin were less than 0.20 seconds slower at the US Olympic trials in August (also inside Jager's old mark) and will lead the challenge to Popov's ambitions.

100 freestyle

Popov again leads the way this year with a magnificent 48.27, just 0.06 seconds outside his world mark, and must fancy his chances of becoming the first man to win an individual swimming title three times.

The 100 is his first Sydney shot at the treble and the 50 his second. Biggest threats in the 100 are his old adversary Hall, the 50 and 100 silver medallist in 1996, Hall's fellow American Neil Walker, Popov's Australian training partner Michael Klim and Dutchman Pieter van den Hoogenband, who trounced the Russian at the 1999 European championships.

200 freestyle

Seventeen-year-old Australian Ian Thorpe is way ahead of the rest this year and compatriot Klim, the second-fastest in the world in 2000, has pulled out of the event to concentrate his efforts on less apparently forlorn causes.

Grant Hackett, who has taken Klim's place, American Josh Davis and Van den Hoogenband are the other main medal contenders.

400 freestyle

Thorpe's domination is even more marked in the 400. He is nearly six seconds faster this year than the next-quickest, Americans Klete Keller and Chad Carvin. Italy's Emiliano Brembilla, who regained the European title in July, is a further second adrift.

1,500 freestyle

Kieren Perkins is aiming for his third successive Olympic title following his overwhelming triumph of 1992 and his extraordinary success in 1996 after he had almost failed to qualify for the final.

Since then, however, he has been supplanted as world number one by fellow Australian Hackett, who won the world long-course title in 1998 and the world short-course title a year later.

Erik Vendt, the first American to swim the event in under 15 minutes, is second-fastest in the world this year, splitting Hackett and Perkins.

100 backstroke

Ukraine-born Lenny Krayzelburg, who won both backstroke events at the 1998 world championships, is favourite, though Neil Walker, the world short-course champion, ran him close in the US trials. Australians Matt Welsh and Josh Watson are the other main medal contenders.

200 backstroke

Krayzelburg faces his strongest challenge from fellow American Aaron Peirsol, the fastest man in the world this year. Gordan Kozulj, the European champion, could put Croatia on the medal map.

100 breaststroke

Russia's Roman Sludnov took the world record in May and should have a tremendous duel with American Ed Moses, who last month also swam faster than the old world mark of Frederik DeBurghgraeve.

The Belgian 1996 Olympic champion retired this year saying he was tired and could not achieve the qualifying time. Moses has vowed to break the one-minute barrier.

200 breaststroke

Sludnov and fellow Russian Dmitry Komornikov take on French pair Stephan Perrot and Yohan Bernard and Americans Kyle Salyards and Tom Wilkens in what looks likely to be a tight race for gold.

100 butterfly

Australian fans eagerly await a duel between world champion Michael Klim and Geoff Huegill, who pipped him at the Australian trials. But Sweden's Lars Frolander, who split the two Australians at the 1998 world championships, might surprise them. A mere 0.04 seconds separate the three this year.

200 butterfly

American Tom Malchow, 1996 Olympic silver medallist and 1998 world championship bronze medallist, is favourite for gold after breaking the world record in June. French veteran Franck Esposito is swimming faster than ever and world champion Denys Sylantyev of Ukraine and Britain's Stephen Parry are also in the hunt. Nothing has gone right for reigning champion Denis Pankratov since his triumph in Atlanta and his medal chances look extremely slim.

200 individual medley

Italy's versatile Massimiliano Rosolino won the European title in the year's fastest time but faces a tough battle with Americans Tom Wilkens and Tom Dolan. World record holder Jani Sievinen and Hungary's Attila Czene, who pipped the Finn for the Olympic title, do not figure in the top 10 this year.

400 individual medley

Tom Dolan has won the last three global titles -- 1994 worlds, 1996 Olympics and 1998 worlds -- and will be favourite again. His biggest threat will probably come from fellow American Erik Vendt, while 1996 bronze medallist Curtis Myden of Canada will be a medal contender again.

4x100 freestyle relay

The Americans have never lost this event at the Olympics and will be favourites to retain their title. Australia and the Netherlands are the pick of the rest.

4x200 freestyle relay

Australia broke the world record last year and are firm favourites. Daniel Kowalski joins Thorpe, Hackett and Klim in the home quartet. The Americans, the Dutch and Britain look the next in line.

4x100 medley relay

The Americans have won this event every time except in 1980, when they boycotted the Moscow Olympics, and should maintain the sequence. Australia and Russia head the other medal contenders.



(c) Reuters Limited.